SWEDEN v. U.S. COVID-19 MITIGATION — A FAIRER COMPARISON

U.S. LOCKDOWN IS SAVING MORE LIVES …

Sweden’s no-lockdown approach to saving lives during the COVID-19 pandemic is not fairing better than the U.S. lockdown mitigation strategy when appropriate comparisons are utilized … at least not as of this writing.

Rather than comparing countries with substantially different population sizes (U.S. 331m v. Sweden 10m) and density / age / ethnic demographics, or between Sweden and U.S. states with the highest COVID-19 death tolls (as the WSJ did in today’s editorial pages), it makes more sense to compare Sweden with U.S. states possessing common variables associated with COVID-19 morbidity:

1. population density
2. % population > 65-years-old
3. % population of African descent (e.g., Black)

(Note: If more precise autopsy data were available, we would also add another variable: % population > 65-years-old with pre-existing comorbidity health conditions.)

Here are the latest (as of 4/27/20) COVID-19 death statistics for Sweden (2,274) and the United States (55,637).

And here are the respective country and state populations …

But now let’s look at Sweden and individual U.S. states by the three variables most closely associated with COVID-19 morbidity. And let’s capture two states on either side of Sweden’s metrics to establish a more comparable data set with which to compare morbidity rates.

First, Sweden and U.S. states by population density …

Second, Sweden and U.S. states by % of population over 65-years-old …

Third, Sweden and U.S. states by % of population of African descent …

Now, finally, let’s compare COVID-19 deaths per 1 million capita between Sweden and the ten captured U.S. states possessing common population and demographic variables associated with the pandemic morbidity. (Excel pdf attached)

U.S.-v-Sweden-Covid-19-Stats

While Sweden’s no-lockdown, herd-immunity approach is not currently a better way to save lives, it bears watching when the second wave of coronavirus emerges this coming Fall and Winter.